Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
