Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
