Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
